fixtureRESOLVEDresolved

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

Current stageCurrent stageThe app maps Polymarket and UMA data into one dispute path. This stage is the best current read from cached market, oracle, and voting data.

Resolved

Market resolved

NONO

Beginner mapBeginner mapA plain-English layer over the raw UMA and Polymarket data. It explains the current stage, likely next step, and what signal matters most.

Resolved

100% through visible path

What is happening

The market is resolved. The dispute path is complete.

Likely next

No more dispute stages should be needed unless there is a data correction.

What to watch

Check final outcome and whether it matches UMA settlement.

Trader readoutTrader readoutA short summary of the next meaningful event. It is not advice; it tells you what process step can change the dispute next.

Final market state reached

Already ended.

Open main Polymarket market

UNKNOWN

Time leftTime leftEstimated or exact time until the current stage can move. Exact means timestamped data was available; estimated means the app inferred it from the stage.

Not available

Timing qualityTiming qualityShows whether timing comes from concrete timestamps or from a stage-based estimate.

Not available from current data

Data freshnessData freshnessHow fresh the cached market and oracle data is. Cards open from cache first, then scheduled sync keeps them updated.

Polymarket Gamma updated at 2026-01-05T04:22:25Z

CoverageCoverageTells you whether the app has indexed on-chain data, Gamma fallback data, or partial coverage for this market.

Gamma-derived lifecycle; exact on-chain timestamps require indexer configuration.

Resolution timelineResolution timelineThis turns raw Polymarket and UMA events into a single beginner-friendly path. Green steps are passed, blue is current, grey is still ahead.

Resolved

PassedPassedStages already detected as complete.

LeftLeftKnown stages still ahead if the dispute follows the full path.

TotalTotalTotal stages in the app's dispute model.

OpenMarket openThe market is still trading or waiting for close. No final dispute decision is happening yet.

complete

ReviewClosed / in reviewThe market is closed or being reviewed before an oracle proposal becomes visible.

complete

took est. 24h

Proposal 1First proposalA proposer submitted an answer. This can still be challenged during the dispute window.

complete

took est. 24h

WindowFirst dispute windowThe proposal is waiting through its challenge period. If no one disputes, it may become accepted.

complete

took est. 24h

Dispute 1First disputeThe first proposal was challenged, so the process resets and needs another proposal.

complete

took est. <1h

Proposal 2Second proposalA second answer is proposed. If this one is disputed, the case can escalate to UMA token voting.

complete

took est. 24h

Dispute 2Second disputeThe second proposal was disputed. This is the handoff into UMA DVM voting.

complete

took est. <1h

UMA ReviewUMA final reviewUMA voters commit and reveal votes. Before reveal, the actual outcomes are hidden.

complete

took est. 24-72h

SettledUMA settledUMA has produced a result, but the Polymarket market may still need final settlement plumbing.

complete

took est. 24h

ResolvedResolvedThe market has applied the final result and the dispute path is complete.

complete

took final

Open

The market is still trading or waiting for close. No final dispute decision is happening yet.

complete

Review

The market is closed or being reviewed before an oracle proposal becomes visible.

complete

took est. 24h

Proposal 1

A proposer submitted an answer. This can still be challenged during the dispute window.

complete

took est. 24h

Window

The proposal is waiting through its challenge period. If no one disputes, it may become accepted.

complete

took est. 24h

Dispute 1

The first proposal was challenged, so the process resets and needs another proposal.

complete

took est. <1h

Proposal 2

A second answer is proposed. If this one is disputed, the case can escalate to UMA token voting.

complete

took est. 24h

Dispute 2

The second proposal was disputed. This is the handoff into UMA DVM voting.

complete

took est. <1h

UMA Review

UMA voters commit and reveal votes. Before reveal, the actual outcomes are hidden.

complete

took est. 24-72h

Settled

UMA has produced a result, but the Polymarket market may still need final settlement plumbing.

complete

took est. 24h

Resolved

The market has applied the final result and the dispute path is complete.

complete

took final

Path duration

est. 8.1d

Current phase

Active; start time unavailable

Next phase

none

100% completetiming: unknownGamma-derived lifecycle; exact on-chain timestamps require indexer configuration.

Pro function

Final Time Left

Pro shows the estimated time remaining until the market reaches final resolution.

Unlock Pro

UMA DVM vote

Validator voting not indexed yet

This dispute is not in an indexed UMA voting round yet. If it reaches validator voting, commit/reveal analytics will appear here.

WAITING

Source-backed data

Oracle, bond and evidence details

Normalized records persisted from Polygon, UMA subgraphs, Gamma and the Polymarket CLOB.

86% complete · 2 missing

Proposal

Proposer: not_available
Proposed outcome: NO
Bond: 500
Challenge deadline: Not available
Custom liveness: Not available
Event-based request: Not available

Bond flow

Amounts use the raw source units returned by UMA.

Proposer bond (raw)

500

Disputer bond (raw)

500

Reward (raw)

Final fee (raw)

Not available

Settlement payout (raw)

Not available

Settlement recipient

Not available

Voting round

Round: not_available
Status: FINALIZED
Commit window: Not available to Not available
Reveal window: Not available to Not available
Final outcome: NO
Public vote counts: Not available yet

Missing or not-yet-public fields (2)

umaVoting.voterCount:not_available
umaVoting.votingPower:not_available

Evidence

Persistent source records attached by an authorized administrator.

Polymarket market page

Polymarket - SUPPORTS NO

source source-polymarket-market-mstr-2025

Market rule: resolves YES if MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by Dec 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET; otherwise NO. Gamma shows final outcome prices YES=0, NO=1 and UMA statuses proposed/disputed/proposed/disputed.